Simple NFL Systems #138 - Teams Coming Off a Spread Loss Or Victory of >= 14 Points
Teams that are coming off a game in which the ATS margin ended up less than 14 points are typically harder to handicap in the following week than teams that performed closer to expectations, for a number of reasons.
Of course, there could be a hundred different factors that contributed to the lopsided result. Was either team under-prepared or injury riddled? Was the lines maker simply out to lunch on the game? Did turnovers play a large factor? Is this game a sign of things to come? And, even if this were to be the case, will the lines maker and betting public overreact to last week's showing and create even more uncertainty in the upcoming week?
In actual fact, teams coming off a game in which the ATS margin was less than 14 are virtually 0.500 ATS since 1994, in the week following (1044-1030). Throw in one other simple statistic; however, and we suddenly have a situation that has been a consistent winner 15 years running.
The stat I am talking about concerns the opponent involved in this game and more specifically, the number of Passing Attempts For (PAF) that they averaged coming in.
If the opponent was sporting a season PAF average of less than 30, the other team suddenly becomes a spread-killer in the following week with a record of 145-92 (61.2%) ATS since 1994, good enough for a $4,380.00 profit when wagering $110 to win back $100 on each contest.
Now, in order to begin to understand why this profitable situation exists, one must look closer at Passing Attempts For and what an average below 30 actually represents.
The league average for PAF normally falls between 34-35 attempts per-game (including sacks) and as a result, a team with an average of less than 30 will normally find themselves in the bottom 5 in this category.
It should come as no surprise that a team that typically makes less than 30 passing attempts per-game is also a team that has a strong running game and one that is not often playing from behind (another factor that can drive up PAF average). In 2008, the bottom 5 for PAF average included: Baltimore, Tennessee, Oakland, Atlanta and Carolina.
In most years, teams in the bottom 4-5 for PAF average also happen to be very good versus the spread and 2008 was no exception: the 5 aforementioned teams sizzled versus the number in the regular season with a record of 48-28 ATS.
So, the bottom line is this: when a team plays an opponent with a solid rushing game and the score ends up nowhere near the outcome predicted by Vegas: take notice, because based on the last 15 years, there is a good chance they will cover the spread in the following week.
Here are all the details (including 1 more Secondary condition that improves this systems record even more).
(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative--weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 18 of my 2009 NFL Game Reports Guide.)
System #138 Summary
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) ATS margin >= 14 in last game.
2) Previous opponent averaged less than 30 Passing Attempts For (PAF) per-game.
Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude less than 7 Points Against (PA) in the last game.
System Stats
ASMR: +0.4
Home%: 50
Dog%: 59
TDIS%: 100
WT%: 53
SPR: +1.1
Top Teams: NYG(12); CIN(11); NE(11); BAL(10); KC(10)
System Record
Overall (Since '94): 129-72 ATS
2008 Season: 17-4 ATS
2007 Season: 9-9 ATS
2006 Season: 14-4 ATS
2005 Season: 12-11 ATS
2004 Season: 16-4 ATS
Last 5 Results. Pick in Brackets
2008 WK20--ARI 32 PHI 25 (ARI +4) W
2008 WK17--HOU 31 CHI 24 (HOU -3) W
2008 WK17--PIT 31 CLE 0 (PIT -11) W
2008 WK16--NE 47 ARI 7 (NE -9) W
2008 WK14--IND 35 CIN 3 (CIN +13.5) L
Teams that are coming off a game in which the ATS margin ended up less than 14 points are typically harder to handicap in the following week than teams that performed closer to expectations, for a number of reasons.
Of course, there could be a hundred different factors that contributed to the lopsided result. Was either team under-prepared or injury riddled? Was the lines maker simply out to lunch on the game? Did turnovers play a large factor? Is this game a sign of things to come? And, even if this were to be the case, will the lines maker and betting public overreact to last week's showing and create even more uncertainty in the upcoming week?
In actual fact, teams coming off a game in which the ATS margin was less than 14 are virtually 0.500 ATS since 1994, in the week following (1044-1030). Throw in one other simple statistic; however, and we suddenly have a situation that has been a consistent winner 15 years running.
The stat I am talking about concerns the opponent involved in this game and more specifically, the number of Passing Attempts For (PAF) that they averaged coming in.
If the opponent was sporting a season PAF average of less than 30, the other team suddenly becomes a spread-killer in the following week with a record of 145-92 (61.2%) ATS since 1994, good enough for a $4,380.00 profit when wagering $110 to win back $100 on each contest.
Now, in order to begin to understand why this profitable situation exists, one must look closer at Passing Attempts For and what an average below 30 actually represents.
The league average for PAF normally falls between 34-35 attempts per-game (including sacks) and as a result, a team with an average of less than 30 will normally find themselves in the bottom 5 in this category.
It should come as no surprise that a team that typically makes less than 30 passing attempts per-game is also a team that has a strong running game and one that is not often playing from behind (another factor that can drive up PAF average). In 2008, the bottom 5 for PAF average included: Baltimore, Tennessee, Oakland, Atlanta and Carolina.
In most years, teams in the bottom 4-5 for PAF average also happen to be very good versus the spread and 2008 was no exception: the 5 aforementioned teams sizzled versus the number in the regular season with a record of 48-28 ATS.
So, the bottom line is this: when a team plays an opponent with a solid rushing game and the score ends up nowhere near the outcome predicted by Vegas: take notice, because based on the last 15 years, there is a good chance they will cover the spread in the following week.
Here are all the details (including 1 more Secondary condition that improves this systems record even more).
(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative--weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 18 of my 2009 NFL Game Reports Guide.)
System #138 Summary
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) ATS margin >= 14 in last game.
2) Previous opponent averaged less than 30 Passing Attempts For (PAF) per-game.
Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude less than 7 Points Against (PA) in the last game.
System Stats
ASMR: +0.4
Home%: 50
Dog%: 59
TDIS%: 100
WT%: 53
SPR: +1.1
Top Teams: NYG(12); CIN(11); NE(11); BAL(10); KC(10)
System Record
Overall (Since '94): 129-72 ATS
2008 Season: 17-4 ATS
2007 Season: 9-9 ATS
2006 Season: 14-4 ATS
2005 Season: 12-11 ATS
2004 Season: 16-4 ATS
Last 5 Results. Pick in Brackets
2008 WK20--ARI 32 PHI 25 (ARI +4) W
2008 WK17--HOU 31 CHI 24 (HOU -3) W
2008 WK17--PIT 31 CLE 0 (PIT -11) W
2008 WK16--NE 47 ARI 7 (NE -9) W
2008 WK14--IND 35 CIN 3 (CIN +13.5) L
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